Group A
Portugal 6 points
Czech Republic 3 points
Turkey 3 points
Switzerland 0 points
Portugal has clinched 1st place in Group A. Switzerland has been eliminated. The Czech Republic are tied on points (3), goal differential (-1), goals scored (2), and goals against (3). The winner of the game between the Czechs and Turks clinches 2nd place and moves on to the knockout stage. If they are tied after 90 minutes, the game will go straight into a shootout (no extra time).
The Portugal-Switzerland match is so irrelevant we may even see Helder Postiga up front for the Portuguese.
The Czech Republic-Turkey match should be epic. Both teams are likely to come out somewhat tentatively, eager not to allow a key early goal. So far this tournament, the Turks have shown more creativity in the midfield, while the Czechs have looked a bit more steady on the back line. If it comes down to penalties, the Czechs will feel very secure with the world-class Petr Cech in net, but Turkey's Volkan Demirel may actually be the better stopper of penalties (check out his work against Sevilla in this year's Champions' League--the last save on Alves is particularly impressive).
Official prediction--Turkey 1 Czech Republic 1, Turks go through on penalties.
Final Group standings: 1. Portugal 2. Turkey 3. Czech Republic 4. Switzerland
Group B
Austria and Poland are still to play, but here are the various scenarios in Group B...
If Austria wins...
1. Croatia 6 points
2. Austria 3 points
2. Germany 3 points
4. Poland 0 points
In this scenario, Croatia clinches first place in the group and the Austrians and Germans meet on Monday with everything to play for. The margin of Austrian victory over Poland dictates who goes through if the two tie. The Poles are eliminated.
If Poland wins...
1. Croatia 6 points
2. Germany 3 points
3. Poland 3 points
4. Austria 0 points
In this scenario, Austria is eliminated and no team has clinched a spot in the second round. Poland needs to either kill Austria today or beat Croatia by more than one goal on Monday to advance over the Croats on goal differential. The Germans will advance if it comes down to a three way tie settled on goal difference.
If Poland and Austria tie...
1. Croatia 6 points
2. Germany 3 points
3. Austria 1 point
4. Poland 1 point
In this scenario, Poland is eliminated and Croatia clinches first place in the group. Austria needs to beat Germany to advance, while Germany only needs a point to claim second place and a date with Portugal in the quarterfinals.
Obviously, Croatia is hoping for an Austria result, while Germany is happiest with a tie or a Poland victory. A tie gives Germany the best chance of advancing, while a Poland win is necessary for Germany to win the group. At the moment, each team controls its own destiny.
Official Prediction--Poland and Austria tie, Germany beats Austria, Poland picks up at least a point against Croatia.
Final Standings--1. Croatia 2. Germany 3. Poland 4. Austria
1 comment:
Got the prediction right but the scenario wrong. Poland can still advance if they beat Croatia, Austria beats Germany, and their margin of victory is two goals greater than Austria's. If it's one goal greater they most likely go through as well, unless Austria scores more in winning by a lesser margin (ie Austria 3 Croatia 2 AND Poland 2 Germany 0). Germany still needs only a point to advance.
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