No, not Russia's shock defeat over the Netherlands, nor Turkey's miraculous comeback. The greatest surprise appeared on the upper lip of a certain Italian striker.
Whoops, wrong photo.
There's our man Luca. Toni eschewed his normal clean-shaven look in favor of a Pedro from Napoleon Dynamite-esque adolescent mustache. Aside from being confused for a video game plumber, Toni did a good job of disguising his domestic knack for scoring goals. It seems that when Toni plays for the Azzuri he immediately transforms from Ruud van Nistelrooy to Duncan Ferguson.
Some strikers, it seems, are just not cut out to serve their country internationally. Joachim Low figured this out at some point, realizing that although Mario Gomez won German Footballer of the Year, he's no more effective than Mario Lopez for the Mannschaft. On the flip side of the coin, Low stuck with Podolski, Klose, and Schweinsteiger--a troika that might not turn heads in the Bundesliga, but never fail to impress for the national side.
Luis Aragones needs to learn this lesson as well. To say that Dani Guiza was ineffective against Italy is a gross understatement. Guiza looked like he stumbled onto the wrong pitch, impressively catching the ball with both hands off a beautifully weighted David Silva cross. Of all the uninspired performances in that Italy-Spain clash, he ranked dead last. It was only fitting that he miss his penalty as well. Sure, he scored 27 goals in La Liga this season, but keep him off the field for the national side.
Many will argue that Toni, Gomez, and Guiza are more than capable goalscorers; that they were the victims of a small sample size and impatient coaching. Their poor performances at the Euro should not keep them off the national side.
It runs much deeper than that. All three of these guys are great goalscorers against shite opposition. Their sheer size and ability to finish on an open shot from twelve yards and in makes them lethal weapons against small and disorganized defenses.
Let's review Toni's international goals. He has 15 in 38 appearances for the Azzuri. His only two in a major competition came against the Ukraine at World Cup 2006. He has also scored against Norway, Belarus (3), Scotland (3), the Faroe Islands, and another against the Ukraine. His three most important goals for country have all come against Scotland. In games against France (2), Spain, the Netherlands, Romania, the Czech Republic, the glorious USMNT, Ghana, and Germany, he has come up empty. This fact is true for club as well. Toni led the Bundesliga with 24 goals, but only managed 1 in 8 games against teams 2-5 in the table (Werder, Schalke, Hamburg, and Wolfsburg).
Guiza, with 6 caps to his name, just scored his first in the meaningless encounter against hapless Greece.
In ten combined Euro qualifying and Euro matches, Gomez scored two goals--both against San Marino.
Simply put, domestic goal scoring success is a terrible formula for selecting strikers for a major international tournament. You don't get to see the Duisburg or Derby County defense at the Euro, especially at this point in the tournament.
That's why I expect to see guys who have proven they can score against big time defenses coming up big in the last three games. Fernando Torres did his best work for Liverpool in the Champions' League against the world's best teams (goals against Chelsea, Arsenal, Inter, Marseille, and Porto (2)) . Compare Gomez' Euro record to that of Roman Pavlyuchenko--5 goals in 10 games against England (2), the Netherlands, Sweden, and Spain. Miroslav Klose was the leading scorer of World Cup 2006 and second-leading scorer of World Cup 2002.
Look for these three who have proven they can do it against the best to be the key goalscorers in the semifinals and finals of the Euro.
And just hope Dani Guiza doesn't see the pitch.
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